机场飞行区人为风险传染行为仿真研究

A Simulation Study of Human Risk Infection Behavior in Airport Flight Area

为探究机场飞行区人为风险传染行为变化规律,以科学合理地进行风险影响因素的管控,构建了由变化速度、易感系数(暴露系数、遗传免疫性)和持鲜明态度群体比例等因子构成的机场飞行区人为风险传染行为动力学模型,其中遗传免疫性包括工作人员的生理状态、心理状态、业务技能和人际关系等4方面。运用Matlab软件模拟仿真了系统平均态度随各因子变化的规律,结果表明:系统初始态度决定平衡状态平均态度倾向,且不同初始态度下,系统暴露系数和遗传免疫性对平均态度变化的影响不同;系统中持鲜明态度的群体比例越高,平均态度趋于平衡的速率越慢。结论为系统面对风险时不同初始状态下的风险管控策略提供了理论依据。

A dynamic model of human risk infection behavior in airport flight area is constructed by the factors such as the change rate, the susceptibility coefficient（the exposure coefficient, the genetic immunity） and the ratio of sharp attitude group in order to explore the change law of human risk infection behavior and to control the risk factors scientifically and reasonably. Genetic immunity is composed of four parts： physiological state, psychological state, business skills and interpersonal relationship of the staff. Matlab software is used to simulate the variation of the average attitude of the system with different factors. The results show that the initial attitude of the system determines the average attitude tendency of equilibrium state. And the effects of exposure coefficient and genetic immunity on the average attitude change are different under different initial attitudes. The higher the proportion of the sharp attitude group in the system, the slower the average attitude tends to balance. The conclusion provides the theoretical basis for the risk control strategy of the system under different initial conditions.