基于人群到达规律的公共场所踩踏风险分析

Stampede Risk in Public Place Based on the Crowd Arrival Pattern

公共活动在丰富人们物质文化生活的同时,也易发生人群踩踏风险。人群踩踏风险一旦发生,造成的后果可能会十分严重。因此,监测、预警和预控人群踩踏风险已越来越引起公共活动组织与管理者的重视。通过对2016年归元寺春节祭祀活动进行数据分析,从微观上论证得出了城市公共场所人群到达服从泊松分布的结论,且发现人群到达呈现入口效应和最短距离效应,以此作为人群踩踏风险计算机模拟的参数设定依据,对优化和设计公共活动的踩踏防控预案方案,提升人群管控能力,降低人群踩踏风险有一定的参考意义。

Public activities can enrich people＇s life, but sometimes the crowd stampede occurs. Once the crowd stampede occurs, the consequences can be very serious. Therefore, monitoring, early warning and pre-control of the crowd stampede risk have aroused more and more attention of organiza- tions and government of the public activities. By analyzing the data of the Guiyuan Buddhist Temple in the Spring Festival in 2016, on the basis of the Poisson distribution and the microscopic scale, this paper demonstrates the crowd arrival of public places and finds that crowd arrival has two patterns, which are the entrance effect and shortest distance effect. The parameters can be used in the computer simulation of crowd stampede risk analysis. And the conclusion of this paper can be a reference to the optimization of stampede predetermined plan and design of public activities to enhance the ability to crowd control and reducing the population stampede risk.