基于主成分分析的长沙市水资源承载力研究

Study on water resources carrying capacity of Changsha city based on the principal component analysis

随着社会经济的快速发展,水资源供需矛盾日益突出,水资源短缺已逐渐成为制约社会经济可持续发展的重要因素.针对日益突出的水资源问题,基于长沙市水资源现状,运用主成分分析法,选取了总人口、水资源总量、GDP、水资源开发利用率等12项指标,通过分析提取了三大主成分对长沙市的水资源承载力进行分析研究.结果表明:长沙市水资源承载力整体呈现波动上升的趋势,其主要影响因素包括人口、社会经济发展状况和水资源状况,其中人口、经济发展水平是影响长沙市水资源承载力的最关键因素.

With the rapid development of social economy,the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources is becoming more and more serious,and the shortage of water resources has become an important factor restricting the sustainable development of social economy. In terms of the increasingly prominent problem of water resources,based on the present situation of water resources in Changsha city,the paper applied the principal component analysis method to analyze the water resources carrying capacity in Changsha city,there principal components were selected from 12 indicators of the total population,the total amount of water resources,GDP,water resources utilization rate and others. The results show that Changsha city water resources carrying capacity is on the fluctuated upward trend,the main influencing factors was population and development of social economy and natural conditions of water resources,and that population,economic development level was the key factor.