南京市产业结构与用水结构互动耦合机制及关联分析

Interactive Coupling Mechanism and Relationship Analysis Between Industrial Structure and Water Utilization Structure of Nanjing City

基于2005—2014年南京市产业结构和用水结构的相关统计数据,运用灰色关联分析方法,构建产业结构与用水结构的关联度和耦合度模型,研究南京市产业结构与用水结构的互动耦合机制及其关联性,结果表明:南京市产业结构与用水结构关联度在0.5以上,属于中等关联;产业结构对用水结构的关联序为第三产业(0.566)、第一产业(0.563)、第二产业(0.557),用水结构对产业结构的关联序为生活用水(0.696)、农业用水(0.601)、工业用水(0.582);南京市产业结构与用水结构耦合的空间差异明显,主城区属于协调型,江宁区与六合区属于磨合型,浦口区、高淳区与溧水区属于拮抗型;南京市产业结构与用水结构的耦合度在时间上显示出阶段性波动的特点,第一阶段(2005—2007年)属于磨合时期,第二阶段(2008—2010年)从磨合转向拮抗时期,第三阶段(2011~2014年)逐渐向协调方向发展.

Based on the relevant statistical data of industrial structure and water utilization structure in Nanjing city from 2005 to 2014, incidence degree and coupling model were built with gray correlation analysis by studying interactive coupling mechanism and its correlation between industrial structure and water utilization structure.The results showed that coupling-degree indexes between industrial structure and water utilization structure were all higher than 0.5, which belonged to the medium correlation level.Tertiary industry （0.566） had a higher coupling-degree than primary industry （0.563） and secondary industry （0.557）, and domestic water （0.696） had higher coupling-degree than agricultural water （0.601） and industrial water （0.582）.There existed spatial difference in coupling between industrial structure and water utilization structure in Nanjing city.The main urban zone belonged to the coordination type, Jiangning and Liuhe districts belonged to the run-in type.Pukou, Gaochun and Lishui districts belonged to rivalry type.The correlation between industrial structure and water utilization structure of Nanjing city demonstrated seasonal volatility by time sequence which can be divided into following three phases.Phase 1 （2005-2007） belonged to run-in type.Phase 2 （2008-2010） turned from run-in type to rivalry type and phase 3 （2011-2014） turned into coordination gradually.