基于网络层次分析法和灰色聚类分析的农村宅基地上市流转风险评价研究

Risk evaluation of the rural residential land circulation based on ANP-grey clustering analysis

从政府、集体、农户三个层面对宅基地上市流转产生的风险进行识别,建立风险评价指标体系,应用网络层次分析法对风险评价指标确定权重,并结合江苏两个典型地区的调研,应用灰色聚类的方法进行风险评价。结果表明:政府面临的风险主要是财政收入下降及贫富差距拉大,农村集体面临的风险主要是腐败现象及社会面不稳,农户面临的风险主要是利益受损及失去保障;且经济发达地区与经济欠发达地区受到地理位置、经济发展水平、财政收入结构以及社会保障水平等因素的制约,所面临的风险类别、风险等级不尽相同。为防范风险,应采取的措施包括:差别化推动宅基地上市流转、拓宽并优化财政收入渠道、制定合理的流转规则、公平有效地分配流转收益以及健全农村地区社会保障制度等。

The risks of the rural residential land were identified from the points of government, agricultural collective and farmers, and a risk evaluation index system was built up by ANP method to determine the risk indicators, also the risk evaluation was done on the basis of the investigation in two typical regions in Jiangsu Province using grey clustering method. The results showed that the risk faced by the government was declining revenues and widening the gap between the rich and the poor, the risk faced by agricultural collective was the corruption and social instability, and the risk faced by farmers was the damaged vital interests and the lost safeguard. Further more, the developed areas and the underdeveloped areas were faced with the risk of different categories and levels. To keep away from risks, some proposals were put forward： according to the economic development conditions and urbanization development process to promote the circulation of rural residential land, optimizing of fiscal revenue channels, making reasonable rules and purpose of circulation, allocating of circulation income fairly and efficiently, promoting and improving the social security system for the peasants, etc.