农产品价格监测体系建设及监测预警方法进展

The monitoring system construction and monitoring and early-warning advances of agricultural product prices

分析了农产品价格监测体系的建设现状及其农产品价格监测体系中数据来源、采集方法及监测预警研究方法的发展现状,并探讨了目前存在的问题及未来发展趋势。研究认为,目前我国农产品价格监测体系覆盖范围广,监测的农产品种类较多,但数据种类以价格数据为主,与价格直接相关的影响因素数据缺失较多;数据采集的信息化程度较低,基于智能、便捷的采集手段还未被广泛应用;国内农产品价格形成机制仍然需要进一步研究,大数据方法将在此方面发挥重要作用;目前监测预警方法研究较丰富,但稳定可靠的预测模型有待开发。

The paper analyzes the status quo of constructing and developing an agricultural price monitoring system in terms of data sources, collecting methods, monitoring and early warning methods, and also discusses the present problems and development trends. It is believed that our country＇ s agricultural price monitoring systems cover a large region and monitor a large product category but are mainly price data and quite lack the data of influencing factors related directly to prices; The degree of informationization is relatively low in data collection and the intelligently and conveniently collecting means are not widely applied; The demestie agricultural price formation mechanism still needs further research and here a big data method will play an important role; At present the researches on monitoring and early warning are relatively abundant, but the stable and reliable prediction models await further development.