FDI技术溢出对我国制造业全要素生产率的影响研究

Research on Impact of FDI Technology Spillover Effect on TFP of China's Manufacturing

基于我国制造业1995~2014年间的面板数据,运用DEA-Malmquist指数方法,考察全要素生产率的变动情况和发展趋势,探究FDI技术溢出对制造业TFP的影响作用,并给出了相应的政策建议。研究发现:我国制造业整体TFP指数呈现较为明显的周期波动性,TFP的增长主要来源于技术效率的改进,特别是企业规模效率的改进,技术进步率在大部分年份都是下降的,导致TFP呈下降趋势;格兰杰检验和面板数据回归分析发现,FDI的行业间技术溢出效应显著,而行业内溢出效应不显著;FDI前向技术溢出每增加一个单位,TFP增加0.09个单位;后向技术溢出每增加1个单位,TFP相应增加0.21个单位。

Based on the panel data about manufacturing from 1995 to 2014, the paper uses Malmquist index to examine the chan- ges and development trend of total factor productivity, explore the impact of FDI technology spillover effect on total factor productivity of China~ manufacturing, and propose appropriate policy suggestions. Studies find that the TFP index of China＇ s manufacturing industry as a whole presents an obvious periodical characteristic. The increase of TFP mainly originates from the improvement of the technical efficiency, especially the improvement of the scale efficiency of enterprises. In most years, the technical process rate has been shrink- ing; as a result TFP is on a downward trend. The results of Granger test and panel data regression analysis indicate that FDI inter - in- dustry has obvious technology spillover effects, while the intra - industry technology spillover hasn＇ t. For each additional unit to for- ward technology spillovers, China＇ s manufacturing TFP will increase 0. 09 unit. For each additional unit to backward technology spill- over effect, China＇ s manufacturing TFP will correspondingly increase 0. 21 unit.