我国储蓄率变动影响因素的量化分析

Quantitative Analysis on the Cause of Savings Rate Change in China

近年来,我国储蓄率快速上升引起了国内外的广泛关注。首先运用一个一般的经济增长模型推导出储蓄率,然后根据中国的一些主要经济参数,通过数值模拟比较分析各种因素对形成中国高储蓄率的贡献。研究发现在改革开放初期,政府的财政变动对储蓄率的下降起到主要作用。2000年后,全要素生产率是我国储蓄率快速上升的主要原因,人口因素在20世纪90年代对储蓄率正面影响。

In recent years, China＇s savings rate has risen rapidly, which has roused wide attention both at home and abroad. We first use a general economic growth model to derive the savings rate, then we use numerical simulation to analyze the contribution of va- rious factors on the formation of China＇s high savings rate according to some of China＇s main economic parameters. We find that in the early stage of reform and opening up, the govemment＇s fiscal changes play a major role in the decline in the household savings rate. Af- ter 2000, total factor productivity is the main reason for the rise of China＇s savings rate. Population factor in the 1990s has positive in- fluence on savings rate.