税收制度影响城乡收入差距的实证研究

An Empirical Study on Influence of Tax System on Urban-Rural Income Gap

基于1978年至2014年的时间序列数据,分别构建VAR模型和ECM模型,来度量全国税收总量和结构对城乡收入差距的影响。结论表明:税收对城乡收入差距的影响是正向的,税收每增加1%,城乡收入差距会平均扩大5.038%,税收总量的增加无益于缩小城乡收入差距。但在税收总量既定情况下,税收结构的当期波动对城乡收入差距的当期波动有显著性影响。从各个税种影响城乡收入差距的关系与程度来看,除了个人所得税之外,当期增值税、消费税、企业所得税和其他税种均与城乡收入差距呈负相关关系,当期个人所得税与当期城乡收入差距呈正相关关系。

Based on the time - series data from 1978 to 2014, this paper constructs the VAR model and ECM model separately to measure the impact of national total tax revenue and structure on urban - rural income gap. The conclusion shows that the impact of tax revenue on urban - rural income gap is positive. With an increase of 1% in total tax revenue, the urban - rural income gap will be ex- panded by an average of 5. 038%. The increase in total tax revenue is not conducive to narrowing urban - rural income gap. But under the condition of the total tax revenue, the current fluctuation of the tax structure has significant influence on the current fluctuation of urban - rural income gap. From the relation and degree of various taxes affecting urban - rural income gap, in addition to individual in- come tax, the current value added tax, consumption tax, corporate income tax and other taxes are negatively correlated with urban - ru- ral income gap. The current individual income tax and the current urban - rural income gap are positively related.