区间痕迹下汽车事故再现结果不确定性问题的求解策略

Solving Strategies for Reconstruction Results Uncertainty Issues of Accidents with Interval Traces

为更好地了解区间痕迹下事故再现结果不确定性分析问题的求解策略,在介绍常用不确定性分析方法后,基于分析和算例给出的求解建议,借助蒙特卡洛法探讨了车速大于事故路段限速值时概率的求解方法;且通过数值算例和真实案例等对相关方法进行了演示与验证。结果表明,不确定性分析方法可分为数值和理论分析两类,对于数值分析类,如对计算时间无要求可直接选用蒙特卡洛法,如对计算时间有要求则可选择遗传算法来满足需求;对于理论分析类,子区间技术是确保各方法所得结果逼近真值的有效方法。另外,若假定区间痕迹服从均匀分布,则可借助蒙特卡洛方法分析车速大于路段限速值的概率。

In order to better understand the solving strategy of uncertainty analysis of reconstruction results in traffic accidents with interval traces,existing uncertainty analysis methods are presented firstly,then some solving suggestions are proposed based on above analysis and some calculation examples.The solving methods of the probability of reconstructed speed greater than speed limit are explored with Monte Carlo method and related methods are demonstrated/validated by calculation examples and real accident cases.Results show that uncertainty analysis methods can be classified into two types:numerical analysis and theoretical analysis.For numerical analysis,Monte Carlo method can be directly used if calculation time is not restricted;otherwise,genetic optimization algorithm is recommended.As for theoretical analysis,sub-interval technique is an effective method for ensuring the result approaching true values.In addition,if assuming interval traces follow uniform distribution,then the probability of reconstructed speed greater than speed limit can be found by Monte Carlo method.