摘要
人口老龄化程度不断加深,劳动力市场供求关系将面临反转的局面,延迟退休年龄是大势所趋。为探究延迟退休年龄对劳动力市场供需产生的具体影响,通过设定3种延迟退休年龄方案,对江苏省劳动力市场供需进行预测。结果表明,延迟退休年龄有助于推迟劳动力市场首次出现供需缺口的时间,降低劳动力供需缺口规模,但难以扭转劳动力由供大于需转向供小于需的趋势。此外,延迟退休年龄对劳动力市场供需平衡的影响效果还与延迟退休的起始人群、速度、目标年龄以及经济增长速度等密切相关。
The aging of the population is deepening,and the supply and demand of the labor market will face a reversal. The retirement age is a general trend.In order to explore the impact of the retirement age on the supply and demand of the labor market,this paper forecasts the supply and demand of the labor market in Jiangsu by setting up 3 deferred retirement age schemes. The results show that the retirement age will for the first time to postpone the time gap between supply and demand of labor market,to reduce the gap between labor supply and demand scale,But it is still difficult to reverse the trend of labor supply from supply to demand. In addition, the effect of the delayed retirement age on the labor market is closely related to the starting population, speed, target age, and economic growth rate of the late retirement.
出处
《河海大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
2017年第4期83-88,共6页
Journal of Hohai University：Philosophy and Social Sciences
基金
江苏高校哲学社会科学研究重点项目(2015ZDIXM010)
河海大学中央高校基本科研业务费项目(2015B13514
2016B32714)
关键词
退休年龄
劳动力
供给
需求
预测
retirement age
labor force
supply
demand
forecast
