中国周边环境与危机风险评估

Assessment of China′s Surrounding Environment and Crisis Risk

随着中国的崛起,中国当前面临的周边环境压力日益增大,东海问题和南海问题日益受到国内外关注。针对中国与美国、日本、韩国、越南和印度5个国家的外交关系,评估了中国周边外交环境和危机风险。首先,分析了2007—2016年中国与这5个国家的外交关系变化;然后,为了判断短期内是否有冲突风险,比较分析了最近1年中国与这5个国家的负面事件曲线;最后,为了探究不同双边关系背后的深层影响因素,对中日、中韩、中越和中印的双边关系进行了回归分析,发现中日关系矛盾关键在于中日间经济权力转移。因此,周边环境中,短期内危机升级可能性较小,但中长期的中日关系可能存在安全困境升级的风险。

With China′s rise,the surrounding environment pressure of China is also increasing,and the dispute about the Diaoyu Islands and the South China Sea has attracted much attention.Aimed at the diplomatic relation of China and five foreign states such as United States,Japan,Korea,Vietnam,and India,China′s surrounding diplomatic environment and crisis risk are evaluated.Firstly,the curves of diplomatic relation between China and five foreign states in the past ten years(2007-2016)are analyzed.Then,to estimate the possibility of conflict risk in the shortterm future,the curves of negative events between China and five foreign states in the past one year are compared and analyzed.Finally,to explore the underlying factors influencing different bilateral relations,regression analyses of the bilateral relations between China and Japan,China and Korea,China and Vietnam,and China and India are carried out.The key factor of the bilateral relation contradiction between China and Japan is the economic power transition between two states.Therefore,in China′s surrounding environment,although the possibility of crisis escalation is smaller in the short-term future,the security dilemma of the bilateral relation between China and Japan exists the risk of spiral escalate in the medium-term and long-term future.