大陆对台湾经济增长拉动作用的估算

An Estimation of China's Mainland's Pushing Effect on Taiwan Economy

以世界投入产出表为数据来源,估算大陆对台湾经济增长的拉动作用,并与美国、日本对台湾地区经济增长的拉动作用进行比较。结果表明,大陆对台湾经济增长的贡献率最高,比美国、日本对台湾地区经济增长贡献率的两倍还多。大陆对台湾中技术制造业、高技术制造业增长的贡献率分别高达61.1%和43.6%,原因主要有:(1)台湾与大陆生产网络形成紧密的上下游关系;(2)大陆市场消费需求增长迅速,大陆的生产和消费对台湾制造业都有很强的拉动作用。

World input - output tables are used as data to estimate China's Mainland^ pushing effect on Taiwan economy, and the effect is compared with that of the United States and Japan. The results show that the contribution rate of China's Mainland for Tai-wan ,s economic growth is the highest, which is more than twice the contribution rate of the United States and Japan. The growth contribution rate for Taiwan manufacturing industry from China's Mainland is very high, and China's Mainland^ contribution rate for Taiwan median - technology manufacturing and high - technology manufacturing industry is 61. 1% and 43. 6% respectively. There are two main reasons. One reason is that Taiwan manufacturing industry and that of China's Mainland have formed a close re-lationship of the upstream and downstream production network. The other reason is the rapid growth of consumption demand in Mainland market,so the Mainland’s production and consumption have a strong positive effect on Taiwan’s manufacturing indus-try.