中国货物贸易出口结构与经济增长的关系研究——基于VAR模型的动态分析

通过建立VAR模型,分析了初级产品及工业制成品出口对我国经济增长的影响。用Granger因果关系检验分析初级产品及工业制成品出口是否是我国经济增长的原因,用脉冲响应及方差分解分析了初级产品及工业制成品出口对我国经济增长的冲击影响及贡献率。结果表明,工业制成品出口是经济增长的Granger原因,而在长期内,初级产品出口对经济增长的贡献率大于工业制成品出口的贡献率。

Through the establishment of VAR model, the paper analyzes the impact of primary and industrial exports on China＇ s economic growth. Using Granger causality test to analyze whether the export of primary products and industrial manu- factures is the cause of China＇ s economic growth, and this paper analyzes the impact and contribution rate of primary and in- dustrial exports on China＇ s economic growth by impulse response and variance decomposition. The results show that the export of manufactured goods is the Granger cause of economic growth, and in the long term, the contribution rate of primary exports to economic growth is greater than that of industrial manufactured goods.