晋西北地区近60a来的气候变化特征

Characteristics of Recent 60a Climate Change in Northwestern Shanxi Province

目的:明确晋西北地区近年来的气候变化状况,可为区域沙漠化趋势的判定提供理论依据。方法:根据晋西北地区9个代表站近60a逐月的气温、降水资料,运用Mann-Kendall检验法(以下简称M-K法)和线性回归等方法分析了季节、年气温和降水的变化特征。结果:晋西北地区气温除70到80年代年际变化较大之外,其余年际变化幅度较小,总体呈现递增趋势,冬季年际变化尤其显著;降水集中在夏季,冬季很少,年际变化幅度较大,近年来呈现明显的下降趋势。总体来看,晋西北地区除个别年份降水量有所增加以外,多数年份呈逐年递减趋势。结论:晋西北地区气候条件中气温和降水量两者的相互作用进一步促使该地区暖干化程度加深,从而导致研究区潜在沙漠化程度具有加剧的趋势。

Objective： The climate change characteristics in the northwestern Shanxi Province can lay a foundation to determine the regional desertification tendency. Methods： Based on the monthly temperature and precipitation data of the 9 meteorological stations in the northwestern Shanxi province, and by using the Mann-Kendall inspective method（M-K method） test, and linear regression, we analyzed the variation characteristics of seasonal, annual temperature and precipitation from 1956 to 2015 in the study area. Results： The inter-annual temperature varied slightly except from 1970 to 1980. The temperature showed an increasing tendency in the analyzed 60 a, especially in the winter. The precipitation mainly occurred in the summer, with little rainfall in the winter. The inter-annual rainfalls varied greatly and showed a decreasing tendency especially in recent years. Conclusion： The interaction between both climatic factors of temperature and precipitation in will promote the warm and dry degree in the northwestern Shanxi Province, thus exacerbating the desertification process in the study area.