计及元件综合影响力的电网安全性风险评估

Power Grid Security Risk Assessment Based on Comprehensive Element Influence Index

电网安全性风险评估对提高系统安全运行能力、预防大停电事故发生具有重要意义。针对现有安全性风险评估方法对元件差异性表征的不足,提出一种基于元件综合影响力的安全性风险评估方法。从潮流转移的角度出发,运用复杂网络理论和熵理论,建立元件综合影响力指标,克服现有风险评估方法对元件差异性表征的欠缺;引入元件运行状态灵敏度指标,弥补传统严重度模型仅考虑元件状态裕度的不足。计及各指标间的关联性,采用AHP-坎蒂雷赋权法求取系统全局综合严重度指标。IEEE30节点系统仿真结果证明本文方法能够合理有效辨识N-1及N-k故障风险。

The power grid security risk assessment is of great significance for the operation of power system,as well as the area of preventing catastrophic failures. Due to the shortcomings of the existing security risk assessment methods,a security risk assessment method based on comprehensive element influence index is put forward. The method focus on the power flow transferring,using complex network theory and entropy theory,to build a comprehensive element influence index,which overcomes the shortage of existing method in characterizing the influence of elements. Introducing components operation sensitivity index overcomes the shortage of traditional severity model which only consider element margin. Refer to the relation of index,using the AHP-candy ray method calculate global system severity index. Through analyzing the IEEE30 system simulation,it proves that the method can effectively identify N-1 and N-k contingency risks.