基于Mann-Kendall法与草地分类的气候变化特征

Climate Change Characteristics Based on Mann-Kendall Method and Grassland Classification

气候变化对草地类型的分布有着决定性的影响,量化分析其影响程度有着重要的意义。将内蒙古全区草地划分为优质草地、中质草地、劣质草地和高产草地、中产草地、低产草地;基于内蒙古全区23个中国地面国际交换站气象资料(1957~2014年),采用Mann-Kendall法对上述两套分类方案的各类草地的年降水量和平均气温进行趋势分析和突变性检验。结果表明:优质、中质、高产、中产草地年降水量呈减少趋势,劣质和低产草地年降水量呈增加趋势;各类草地平均气温均呈增加趋势。劣质和低产草地年降水量的离散程度以及优质和高产草地平均气温的离散程度较其他草地更大,各类草地的年降水量和平均气温在研究时期内均发生突变,不同类型草地的降水量和气温有不同程度的差别。

Climate change has a decisive influence on the distribution of grassland types,and the quantitative analysis of its impact is of great significance. In this paper,the grassland under the jurisdiction of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region was divided into six types： excellent-grade grassland,fair-grade grassland,low-grade grassland and high-yield grassland,medium-yield grassland and low-yield grassland. Based on the data of precipitation and temperature for the 23 meteorological observation stations in Inner Mongolia（ 1957 ~ 2014）,the Mann-Kendall method was used to analyze the annual precipitation and mean temperature of various grasslands,and to analyze the trend and the abrupt change of the annual mean temperature above two sets of classification programs. The result shows that the annual precipitation of excellent-grade grassland,fair-grade grassland,high-yield grassland and medium-yield grassland decreases,while the annual precipitation of low-grade grassland and low-yield grassland increases. The average temperature of all grasslands increases. Low-yield grassland is more dispersed than other grasslands,and the average temperature of excellent-grade grassland and high-yield grassland are greater than that of other grasslands. The annual precipitation and average temperature of all kinds of grassland are abruptly changed during the study period. Different types of grassland precipitation and temperature have different degrees of difference.