供给侧结构性改革:现实基础、理论逻辑、治理配套

The Realistic Basis,Theoretical Logic and Matching Governance of the Supply-side Structural Reform

城市化和经济结构服务化是不同于工业化的效率模式。围绕效率改进和增长可持续分析,本文对供给侧结构性改革给出了一个理论诠释,归纳为三个相互联系的命题:第一,结构性减速,即由于结构条件变化而发生的潜在增长水平下降;第二,增长非连续与增长分化,即由于内生机制的缺失,而可能导致的城市化阶段的增长停滞和震荡;第三,与服务业和消费结构升级密切相关的效率补偿命题,即在服务业和消费主导替代资本驱动的趋势下,效率的提升机制和经济可持续路径。

Urbanization and servitization of economic structure are different from industrialization on the efficiency mode. Based on the analysis of efficiency improvement and growth sustainability, this paper gives a theoretical interpretation of the supply-side structural reform, which can be summa-rized as three interrelated propositions. First, structural deceleration-the potential growth down due to the change of structural conditions. Second, growth discontinuity and growth differentiation-the stag-nation and turmoil of growth during urbanization because of the lack of endogenous mechanism. Third,efficiency compensation related to service sector and consumption structure upgrading - the path of efficiency improvement mechanism and economic growth sustainability under the tendency of service sector and consumption replacing capital to drive the economy.