低生育背景下的二孩生育决策——以陕西省为例

The Two-child Policy under the Background of Low fertility Rate——Taking Shanxi Province for an Example

中国目前的生育处于较低水平,虽然相继实施了"单独二孩"和"全面二孩"政策,但能否达到预期效果还取决于人们的生育决策。本文以"单独二孩"生育政策调整为研究背景,使用在陕西省的调查数据,从政策、经济、社会、心理等方面来探讨育龄妇女二孩生育决策。研究发现,是否生育二孩决策与生育政策、直接生育成本没有显著的相关性;但生育的预期成本越高、机会成本越大以及当前的婚育观念都降低了决定生育二孩的可能性;生育的精神动机,如追求子女带来的精神慰藉、家庭幸福等,对于育龄妇女的再生育决策有着显著的正向作用。对育龄妇女二孩生育决策的研究可为进一步调整和完善生育政策提供借鉴。

At present, Chinese fertility rate is in a low level. Although the government succes-sively carries out the separate two-child policy and universal two-child policy, the exception effect de-pends on peopleJ s child-bearing decisions. Under the background of adjudging the separate two-child policy, the paper researches the two-child policy for the woman of child-bearing age from aspects of policy, economy, society, psychology, etc. Based on the research data of Shanxi Province, the study shows that there is no significant correlation between bearing the second child and policy or cost. But more expected cost, more opportunity cost as well as current marriage and child-bearing concepts all decline the possibility of bearing the second child. The spiritual motivation, like consolation brought by children or family happiness, is positive for the woman bearing the second child. This research can provide a reference for adjudging and perfecting two-child policy.