东北区域业务模式预报产品检验评估系统的建立及应用

Establishment and application of the verification and evaluation system of operational model forecast products in Northeast China

本文建立了东北区域业务模式预报产品检验评估系统,并对东北区域3 km业务模式系统与原东北区域9 km业务模式系统的降水预报效果进行了检验评估。东北区域业务模式预报产品检验评估系统每日自动运行,对降水、地面温度、形势场和台风预报产品进行检验,检验结果以文本和图形两种方式在东北区域气象中心局域网的中尺度数值预报网页上实时显示。同时,东北区域业务模式预报产品检验评估系统可以根据选取的具有代表性的降水个例,对更新改进后的业务模式与目前运行的业务模式预报产品检验结果进行对比评估。检验评估结果表明:新东北区域模式系统对大雨及以上量级降雨预报的改进效果明显,对冬季降雪和南来系统的预报效果也优于原业务模式,但空报率较高。随着数值模式水平分辨率的提高,增加了中小尺度地形信息特征,改进了大尺度降水的预报效果;数值模式垂直分辨率的提高,降水模拟易形成更多的虚假"数值风暴点",导致空报更多。

Verification and evaluation system of operational model forecast products in Northeast China was estab-lished,and then the precipitation forecast abilities of the new 3 km version and the old 9 km version of operational models were verified and evaluated. The system runs every day automatically,and precipitation,surface tempera-ture,weather situation field and typhoon forecast products are verified. The verification results are displayed in real time in a textual and graphic form,respectively,through the mesoscale numerical forecasting web pages of North-east Regional Meteorological Center Local Area Network. Furthermore,the system can compare and evaluate the forecast abilities of different versions of operational models according to typical precipitation cases. The verification and evaluation results show that the new version of operational model obviously improves the forecast abilities for the grade of heavy rain or above. Although the false-alarm rates are higher,winter snowfall and southerly situation are better forecasted by the new version of the model. With the improvements in horizontal resolution and meso-micro scale topographic features,large scale precipitation forecast abilities are enhanced. However,increasing the vertical resolution of the model will create more false numerical point storm on precipitation forecast, leading to higher false-alarm rates.