贸易开放、贸易市场多样化与经济波动——基于中国省级面板数据的实证分析

Trade Openness, Diversification of Trade Markets and Economic Fluctuation——An Empirical Analysis Based on China's Provincial Panel Data

本文使用中国省级层面的面板数据,考察了贸易开放对中国经济波动的影响。研究结果显示:贸易开放所产生的外部风险显著增加了经济波动,而贸易开放减少了经济波动,其中出口贸易对经济波动的影响显著为负,而进口贸易对经济波动的影响为负但不显著;贸易开放通过进出口市场多样化减少了经济波动,而且进出口市场多样化对经济波动的负向影响是U型的,并且U型表现出较强的稳健性。本文的研究结果表明贸易开放所引致的外部风险破坏了经济稳定,而贸易市场多样化对保持经济增长的稳定性发挥了重要作用。

Using the panel data of the provincial level, this paper investigates the impact of trade openness on China＇s economic fluctuation. The results show that the external risk caused by trade openness significantly increases economic fluctuation, trade openness itself reduces economic fluctuation. Particularly, the effect of export trade on economic fluctuation is significantly negative;the effect of import trade is negative but not statistically significant. Furthermore, we examine the mechanism by which trade openness reduces economic fluctuation. The findings show that trade openness reduces economic fluctuation through diversification of export and import markets, and the negative impact of diversification of export and import markets on economic fluctuation is U-shape, and also the Ushape shows strong robustness. The results suggest that external risks caused by trade openness undermine economic stability, but diversification of trade markets plays an important role in maintaining the stability of China＇s economic growth.