地方政府官员能否提振本地企业出口——来自中国地级市市长和市委书记的证据

Politicians and Firm Export——Evidence from China's Prefectural Officials

中国对外贸易取得了令人瞩目的巨大成功,但成功背后是否有各级地方政府官员付出的巨大努力?为此本文收集了中国1999-2009年间2000多任地级市市长和市委书记的数据,并将其与辖区内的企业一一匹配,来考察地方政府官员对企业出口的影响。结果表明:政府官员任职稳定能显著促进企业出口,且主管经济工作的市长影响更大;对政府官员个体特征的分析表明,干部队伍建设的"年轻化、知识化、专业化",能显著促进企业出口;运用倍差法和二元边际分析方法估算影响区域和贸易模式,上述结论依然稳健,且政府官员会同时提振企业出口的集约边际和扩展边际。因此稳定而且素质较高的干部队伍是缔造中国出口奇迹的重要力量。

The hard work of local government officials may be one of the reasons for the rapid development of China＇s foreign trade. Therefore, we collected data of more than 2000 mayors and CPC secretaries in China during 1999-2009, and then matched them with firms in the area to study the influence of local officials on the firm export. The results are as follows： Firstly, officials change will significantly reduce export, and stability will promote it. Secondly,young, well-educated and professional officials can contribute export significantly.Thirdly, to estimate the influential region and trade patterns, we use difference-indifference approach and marginal analysis method, and the conclusions are still robust. The results show that the stability and high quality of officials are the important driving factors to create China＇s export miracle.