日本对“一带一路”倡议的解读与应对分析

Analysis on the Interpretation and Response of Japanese Side to the Belt and Road Initiative

“一带一路”倡议提出时,正值中日关系趋冷,从倡议提出日本负面居多的品头论足和各界的质疑,到2017年5月日本自民党干事长二阶俊博率团参加“‘一带一路’国际合作高峰论坛”转为积极态度,日本对“一带一路”的态度经历了一个转变过程。从日本政府的公开见解及政府智库的解读来看,经历了初期排斥、中期竞争、后期软性应对直至现在的积极参与几个阶段。与日本政府较长时间的较为冷淡态度不同,日本企业界的解读相对客观和较为积极。多数经济团体给予“一带一路”倡议较为积极的评价,一些与中国业务不甚紧密的经济团体对倡议表述较为谨慎,有的甚至充满了戒备心态;一些保守系媒体认为日本需要与美欧共同遏制中国粗放式发展模式的向外扩大,部分偏左媒体则认为应加强中日互利合作的正向报道;大学和智库的多数学者认为,“一带一路”倡议是顺应世界经济发展趋势的构想,日本不应一概排斥“一带一路”。普通民众较为普遍地抱有戒备和担忧意识。随着目前日本自民党内主张与中国在“一带一路”延长线上合作的呼声占据主流,安倍政府对“一带一路”的态度也发生了转变,积极参与的姿态明显。但从中日产业和地缘竞争角度而言,预计日本不会轻易放弃既有战略而不设防地参与“一带一路”合作,博弈与合作互现将是日本谋求对华“一带一路”合作的基本诉求。

＂The Belt and Road＂ Initiative was proposed when Sino-Japanese relations during the cooling trend. In the initiative put forward at the beginning, the attitude of the Japanese and Chinese experts has also undergone a change, the gradual shift from negativity to start mutually beneficial. Japanese public opinion from the government point of view, to take the early exclusion, competition until mid-soft now and in the future to deal with the active participation of several stages; different from the Japanese government lukewarm attitude, more positive interpretation of the Japanese business community. However, some economic groups which does not close with Chinese business whose expressed more cautious, even full alert state of mind to the ＂B＆R_＂, but most economic groups give ＂B＆R＂ more positive evaluation; from the attitude of the Japanese people, the conservative media that Japan needs to expand outside China and the US and Europe to curb the extensive development mode, left the media that should strengthen mutually beneficial cooperation positive reports. Most universities and think tanks experts consider that ＂B＆R＂ and the world economic development trends coincide, Japan should not be excluded ＂The Belt and Road＂ of caution and concern, there are many people cooperation with China emerging voice, but the The general public there is more common sense cautious optimism. Japan currently advocated competition point of view, Japan will not give up and to the strategic and competitive constraints.