2017年8月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China,August 2017

目的评估2017年8月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果东南亚国家登革热疫情高发,我国输入病例将持续增加,南方重点省份的本地传播风险将上升;而寨卡病毒病等其他蚊媒传染病也存在输入性病例和输入后发生本地传播的风险。食物中毒事件将会继续上升,农村聚餐、升学宴等食物污染或者食物变质导致中毒事件将增多,而7 8月也是毒蘑菇中毒事件高发期。洪涝灾区灾后发生水源性、食源性、动物源性和接触性传染病风险将有所上升。8月为高温中暑高发月份,当有持续高温潮湿天气出现时,易出现中暑病例高峰。结论预计2017年8月全国总体突发公共卫生事件数和病例数将较7月有所下降。需重点关注寨卡病毒病、登革热、中东呼吸综合征等传染病,食物中毒,以及洪涝、台风和高温热浪等可能造成的公共卫生风险。

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in August,2017. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels,and the experts in the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results Due to the epidemic of dengue fever in southeast Asia countries,the imported dengue fever cases into China would continue to increase,and the risk of local dengue fever transmission in southern provinces would increase. The other mosquito-borne diseases,such as Zika virus disease,would also showthe same incidence and transmission patterns as dengue fever. Food poisoning would occur more frequently as more rural feasts and graduation celebrating feasts would be held in this season. July-August is also the high incidence season of poisonous mushroom poisoning. The incidences of water-borne,food-borne,zoogenic and contagious infectious diseases might increase after flood disasters in some areas. Due to the high temperature and humidity in August,the incidence of heatstroke could reach its peak of the year. Conclusion It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies and case numbers would be lower in August than in July in China. Close attention should be paid to Zika virus disease,dengue fever,Middle East respiratory syndrome,food poisoning and the public health risks caused by flood,typhoon and heat wave.