全球石油行业上游支出现状及展望

Present Conditions and Prospect for Upstream Spending of Global Petroleum Industry

自2014年下半年油价大幅下跌以来,全球油公司纷纷缩减上游支出。随着油价回升,上游支出将逐步复苏,而上游支出复苏的节奏和趋势,一定程度上是全球石油供需变化和价格波动的基础,也是影响油公司生产经营决策的重要依据。IHS、BP、EIA等机构研究认为,油价低谷已经过去,2017年将会继续缓慢波动回升,石油行业整体进入"谨慎乐观"时期。低油价以来各油公司降本增效措施已取得明显进展,经营支出水平持续下降,美国非常规油气开发成本降低近30%,海上项目作业周期大幅缩短。国际油公司成本降低大多是可以持续的,随着油价企稳,未来几年全球上游支出会平稳回升。短期看,北美非常规油气支出会快速反弹,中长期的增长重点则是深水、致密油和液态天然气等领域,但海上项目支出仍会继续下滑1~2年。

Global oil companies have cut their upstream spending since slump in oil prices in the latter half of 2014. Upstream spending will gradually grow with the rise of oil prices. To some extent, the pace and trend for the rise of upstream spending are based on changes in global oil demand and price fuctuations. This is also the important basis for oil companies to make decisions on their production and business. According to the studies made by IHS, BP and EIA, oil price has broken out of its trough and will start to rise in slow fuctuations. The oil industry, as a whole, enters into a “cautiously optimistic” period. Oil companies have made remarkable achievements in their cost-effective measures thanks to low oil prices, with business spending kept falling. The cost for non-conventional oil and gas development was reduced nearly 30 percent in the United States while the operational period of offshore projects was shorten dramatically. Most of international oil companies can maintain their efforts for cost reduction. With oil prices kept stable, global upstream spending will rise steadily in next few years. From a short-term prospective, non-conventional oil and gas spending will grow rapidly in North America while the medium-term growth is in the areas of deepwater, compact oil and liquid natural gas. However, spending for offshore projects remains sliding for one or two years.