能源强度对碳强度的冲击效应和贡献度研究

Impact and contribution of energy intensity to China's carbon intensity

能源强度对碳强度具有重要影响。实证分析表明:长期内,能源强度与碳强度之间存在稳定的协整关系且呈现正向效应。通过脉冲响应函数可知,能源强度对碳强度的冲击效应最大为13%。从方差分解可知,能源强度对碳强度的贡献度随着预测期的不断增加而提高,即能源强度对碳强度变化的贡献度最大为32.9%。

Energy intensity has an important impact on carbon intensity. The empirical analysis of China during 1953-2014 shows that there is a stable co-integration relationship between energy intensity and carbon intensity in the long run and presents a positive effect. Through the impulse response function we can see that the impact of energy intensity on carbon intensity is up to 13%. From the variance decomposition we can see that the contribution of energy intensity to carbon intensity increases with the increase of prediction period,that is,the contribution of energy intensity to carbon intensity is 32.9%. After the above analyses we can get the following conclusions：（1）Improving the energy consumption structure. The optimization of energy consumption structure is of great significance to carbon emission reduction,and government departments should build a green,circular,clean and low-carbon modern energy system to speed up the improvement of coal utilization,increase clean coal technology development efforts,establish a sound clean coal technology to promote the use of policies and systems to achieve efficient and safe,environmentally friendly development purposes.（2）Reducing energy intensity. Since the reform and opening up,China’s energy efficiency has been rising,but the energy intensity is three times of the world level. Therefore,China’s energy industry development should limit the too high,too fast development of high energy consumption industry,reduce their proportion,and eliminate backward production capacity and low technology to achieve low-carbon economy. At the same time,the government should also vigorously develop the modern service industry and high-tech industries,improve their proportion,to achieve economic and environmental green,harmony,environmental protection,clean development,and should also promote the sustainable development of low-carbon industries through taxation and subsidy policies,establish and improve relevant laws and regulations,impose carbon taxes on industries with high energy consumption,and improve people’s low-carbon ideas and establish low-carbon values,and thus improve energy efficiency.