解析乌克兰危机下俄欧能源合作的困境与趋势

The Predicament and Trend of Russia-EU Energy Cooperation in the Context of the Ukrainian Crisis

俄欧能源关系密切,但乌克兰危机爆发以来,双方在政治与安全领域的不信任感加深,导致二者之间的能源互信度持续走低,双边能源合作陷入困境。俄欧能源关系政治化程度的提升促使双方均在零和博弈认知的基础上从能源关系多元化的角度重新审视并构筑各自的能源安全体系。从目前的情况看,俄罗斯和欧盟推行的拓展能源市场与能源来源多元化战略的实施效果并不理想。尽管双方的能源战略导向不同,却都面临着全球化时代如何实现经济—能源—环境的可持续发展问题。未来的俄欧能源合作仍具有较高的不确定性,双方需要在重建互信的基础上构筑均衡、多元的"互利合作型相互依赖"关系。

Russia-EU energy relations have been close. The Ukrainian crisis, however has deepened mutual distrust in political and security fields and lead bilateral energy cooperation into difficult situation. Higher politicization of Russia-EU energy relations have prompted both sides to re-examine and construct their own energy security system from the perspective of diversification of energy relations on the basis of zero sum game cognition. In the present situation, the expansion energy market and energy source diversification strategy implemented by Russia and the EU are not ideal. Despite the differences in energy strategies, both sides face the same question of how to realize the sustainable development of economy, energy and environment in the era of globalization. In the future, the energy cooperation between Russia and Europe still is in high degree of uncertainty. The two sides need to rebuild a balanced and pluralistic ＂mutually beneficial cooperative interdependence＂ relationship on the basis of mutual trust.