福州港口物流竞争力发展研究——基于与对外贸易关系的分析

Research on the Development of Fuzhou Port Logistics Competitiveness——Based on the Analysis of the Relationship with Foreign Trade

通过选取1999-2015年福州港口吞吐量和进出口贸易总额2个时间序列作为样本,运用EG两步法和VAR模型对福州港口物流及对外贸易进行定量分析,研究福州港口物流及对外贸易的长期协整均衡关系,从而提出提升福建自由贸易试验区福州片区港口物流竞争力软、硬实力的建议。

Based on the empirical analysis on the quantitative relationship between port logistics and foreign trade of Fuzhou by En- gle-Granger method and VAR model. We can get the conclusion that port logistics and foreign trade of Fuzhou have long-term cointegra-tion relationship; there are mutual promotion between the development of each other; the improvement of foreign trade has instant effect on port logistics, but port logistics does not have this instant effect; the foreign trade has more obvious stimulating effect on port logistics; the dependence of port logistics development on foreign trade is far greater than the foreign trade＇s dependence on port logistics. Therefore, one should increase the numbers of international container lines,impove the “hard power” and “soft power” of Fuzhou port.