中国低碳农业发展绩效与政策评价

Evaluation on the Low Carbon Agricultural Development Performance and Policy in China

通过引入联合生产的理论视角和概念框架,在以往把农业碳排放视为非期望产出基础之上,将农业碳汇作为期望产出纳入碳绩效核算体系,结合2007—2015年中国42个低碳试点省市的面板数据,运用碳计量模型、超效率SBM模型和ML效率指数分析了中国低碳农业发展绩效的时空变化趋势,继而对不同地区低碳农业政策实施效果进行了评价。结果表明:低碳农业发展是一个具有4种产出品的联合生产格局,旨在实现农产品和碳产品之间的耦合关系得以脱钩;在农业生产过程中,低碳试点地区虽然保持了良好的净碳汇效应,但未能实现低碳农业的有效发展,农业投入要素的冗余是主要制约因素;大部分试点地区低碳农业生产效率呈现震荡上升趋势,实现了低碳农业发展的绩效改进,农业技术进步是绩效改进的主要驱动力。整体上来讲,低碳试点省市建设虽然在一定程度上促进了低碳农业的发展,但效果并不明显,主要制约因素源于农业技术效率的降低。

Based on the theoretical and conceptual framework of joint production,took agricultural carbon emission as an undesirable output,brought carbon sink as desirable output into carbon performance accounting system,combined with the panel data of 42 low carbon pilot areas in China during years2007-2015,the paper analyzed the spatial and temporal trends of China＇s low carbon agricultural development with the method of carbon accounting model,SE-SBM model and ML efficiency index,and then evaluated the effect of low carbon agricultural policy implementation in different areas. The results showed that： low carbon agriculture is a joint production process with four types of outputs; the purpose is to decouple the relationship between agricultural products and carbon products. Agricultural production has maintained a good net carbon sink effect in the low carbon pilot areas,but failed to realize the effective development of low carbon agriculture. Redundancy of agricultural input was the main constraint.Low carbon agricultural production efficiency tended to rise with fluctuation in most pilot areas,and realized performance improvement of low carbon agricultural development. Agricultural technological progress was the main driving force. Generally,construction of low carbon pilot provinces and cities promoted the development of low carbon agriculture to a certain extent,but not obviously. The main constraint was the reduction of agricultural technical efficiency.