一种基于可靠性分析的输电线路路径设计方法

A Transmission Line Path Design Method Based on Reliability Analysis

对待选路径可靠性进行评估是输电线路规划设计中路径选择工作的重点之一。针对常规的采用多年平均故障率的方法存在的不足,本文提出了一种基于可靠性分析的输电线路路径设计方法。基于对待选路径跨越区域内已有线路的历史故障信息的统计,以月为时间尺度计算待选路径各个月份的故障率,并对其逐月变化特性进行函数拟合;考虑到与待选路径相连的电源出力也可能是时变的,本文对电源出力的逐月变化特性进行函数拟合。根据待选路径故障率和电源出力的拟合函数,通过计算待选路径的全年输送电能损失期望来反映其可靠性水平,可为待选路径间的比较和最优路径的选择提供重要的参考依据。

Reliability assessment for selected paths is one of the focuses in path selection of transmission line planning and design process. Considering the disadvantages of conventional methods which adopt average annual failure rate, a transmission line path design method based on reliability analysis is proposed in this paper. Based on statistics for historical failure information of existing lines in the area where selected paths cross, failure rate of each month of selected paths is calculated in monthly scale and its monthly time behavior is fitted. Owing that the power supply output connected to the selected path may be also time-varying, the monthly time behavior of power supply output is then fitted. Finally, according to fitting functions of selected path failure rate and power supply output, the reliability level corresponding to the selected path can be reflected through calculating the expected energy loss of full year, which can provide important reference for comparing several selected paths and choosing the optimal path.