基于向量自回归模型的能源消费结构影响因素分析

Econometrical Analysis on the Structure and Influential Factors of Energy Consume based on VAR Model

能源是经济发展的重要物质基础。能源消费结构影响着国家经济发展模式。基于能源消费的影响因素,分析其结构特征,利用计量经济方法,建立向量自回归模型,并对模型进行残差检验。结论表明经济发展对能源消耗依赖性仍然较强,能源消费结构主要还是以煤炭为主。期待在不影响经济快速发展的同时实行能源保护政策,促进新能源利用比例提升,以实现资源、能源、环境平衡发展。

Energy is one of important basis to economy development, which is impacted by the energy structure of our country. In this paper, we propose vector auto- regression model to measure the relationship between them. Some econometrical methods, such as stationary test, Granger Causality and Co-integration test have been used before establishing the model. The test result of residual expressed that the model is significant. Our results can provide some suggestion and guidance to balance among sources, energy and environment.