基于可靠度理论和破坏概率的库岸滑坡稳定性分析

Research on stability evolution law of bank landslide based on reliability theory and damage probability

基于可靠度理论与破坏概率,应用SEEP/W软件对三峡库区黄土坡滑坡进行了稳定性评价。对比分析了在库水位升降过程中,应用平均稳定系数法和滑坡破坏概率法对稳定性评价的异同。结果表明:用破坏概率对滑坡进行稳定性评价时,由于考虑了变量的随机性,评价结果相比于用单一固定参数计算的稳定性要合理;当库水位初始位于175 m时刻黄土坡滑坡处于较稳定状态,库水位从175 m降到145 m时刻黄土坡滑坡有一定的破坏变形的可能。

Based on reliability theory and damage probability and using SEEP/W software, the stability evolution law of Huangtupo landslide was researched. The differences and similarities between average stability coefficient and landslide failure probability have been analyzed when they are used to evaluate the slope stability during the process of reservoir water level fluctuation. The research results show as follow ： when using the damage probability to evaluate the stability evolution law of landslide, it can get more reasonable results than conventional methods. This is because parameters are random variables. The stability of the shallow and deep landslide is reduced to the minimum when the reservoir water level drops from 175 m to 145 m. The stability will be improved a little when the water level keep in 175 m.