基于DGM(1,1)模型的甘肃省经济发展水平预测研究

Study on Prediction of Economic Development Level in Gansu Province Based on DGM(1,1) Model

经济预测是经济决策的基础,合理的经济预测对经济的久远发展有着重要的作用,且涉及到经济结构、产业布局等一系列问题。在建立甘肃省经济发展水平指标体系的基础上,以原始数据为依据,采用DGM(1,1)模型对2015-2025年甘肃省的经济发展水平进行预测。结果显示,DGM(1,1)模型能够很好地拟合经济发展状况,甘肃省各项经济指标均朝着良好方向发展,经济发展水平将逐年提高。

Economic prediction is the foundation of economic decision-making.Reasonable economic prediction,related to a series of problems such as economic structure and industrial layout,plays an important role in the long-term development of economy.Therefore,the prediction of the economic development trend of Gansu Province in the next few years can provide a decision-making basis for the development of economic development strategy.Based on the establishment of the index system of Gansu Province economic development,the article,referring to the original data,predicts the economic development level of Gansu Province during the 2015-2025 period with DGM(1,1)model.The results show that the DGM(1,1)model can fit the economic development well,that all indexes develop toward the favorable direction,and that the level of economic development increases year by year.