农村金融发展和农产品对外贸易对农民收入影响的研究——基于中国1990-2014年的数据经验

Research on the Response of Farmer’ Income to Rural Financial Development and Foreign Trade of Agricultural Products——Based on the Data of 1990-2014 in China

根据中国1990-2014年的时间序列数据,实证分析了农村金融发展、农产品对外贸易与农民收入之间的关系。结果表明,中国农村金融发展、农产品对外贸易与农民收入之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,农业贷款、农业保险、农产品进口与农民收入增长呈正向关系,农产品出口与农民收入增长呈负向关系;农业贷款对于促进农民增收具有显著的积极作用,而农业保险促进农民增收存在一定的滞后性;农产品进口和出口均是显著影响农民收入变动的格兰杰原因,但其中农产品出口未成为促进农民增收的重要途径,反而在某种程度上抑制了农民收入增长。

Based on the time series data of 1990-2014 in China, the relationship between rural financial development, agricultural products foreign trade and farmers＇ income was analysed. The results show that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between rural financial development, agricultural products foreign trade and farmers＇ income. Agricultural loans, agricultural insurance, agricultural products import is positively related to farmers＇ income growth, but agricultural products export is negatively related to farmers＇ income growth. Agricultural loans have significant positive effects on farmers＇ income growth, but agricultural insurance has a certain lag. Agricultural products import and export are significant Granger Cause that affect farmers＇ income, but agricultural products export can not become an important way to increase farmers＇ income and inhibit the growth of farmers＇ income to some extent.