非均衡性非对称效应下中国货币政策三角困境与卢卡斯无效命题的启示

The Triangle Plight of China's Monetary Policy and the Enlightenment of Lucas's Invalid Proposition Impossible Trinity Under the Background of the Non-equilibrium and Asymmetry Effect

在后次贷危机时期,人民币对外升值、对内贬值、内外扭曲失衡,人民币货币政策存在着明显的非均衡性效应、非对称效应等干扰因素,使得人民币的独立性、汇率市场化改革、资本流动等并未能实现原先预定的目标。通过对货币工具等进行分析表明:我国独立的人民币货币政策难以应对国内外价值扭曲失衡的实际情况,人民币陷入了"三角悖论"困境,央行的货币政策目标和工具存在冲突,在实施效果上存在失效性可能。

In the context of the post-subprime crisis period,the distortion and imbalance of external appreciation of CNY and the devaluation of internal transactions,the CNY monetary policy has obvious non-equilibrium effect, asymmetric effect and other interference factors, making its independence,the reform of marketization of exchange rate,capital flows and other issues fail to achieve the original target. Based on the analysis of the monetary instruments and other aspects,it shows that the independent CNY monetary policy is difficult to deal with the distortion and imbalanceof domestic and foreign value,and the CNY gets into the ＂triangular paradox＂predicament; besides,the objectives and tools of the central bank＇s monetary policy exist conflicts,and the implementation effect may carry forward the possibility of failure.