老龄化国家人口转变与人口红利再生——基于18个老龄化国家的经验证据

The Aging Population and the Second Population Dividend:Empirical Evidence from 18 Aging Nations

本文以生命周期理论为基础,从老龄化的双向进程,即预期寿命以及抚养比两个角度考察人口老龄化与储蓄率之间的关系,并控制了抚养比与人均收入的交互效应,使用从1960年起已经进入老龄化的18个国家的面板数据构建模型,运用多种估计方法考察老龄化对储蓄的影响。结论表明,预期寿命和人均收入、储蓄率之间存在显著的正向关系;老年抚养比与储蓄率之间存在显著的负向关系,且这种关系受老年抚养比与人均收入增长之间交互相应的影响。人均收入增长越快,老龄抚养比上升对储蓄的负面影响则越大,这显示在收入增长较快的经济体中,老年抚养比下降对储蓄率上升的贡献效应比在收入增长较慢的经济体中更大。少儿抚养比与储蓄率之间的关系并不明确,有待未来研究进一步的考察。

Based on life cycle theory, this article explored the influence of aging on savings from the two-way process of aging, using data of 14 countries from 1960-2013, several panel data models were built controlling the dependency ratio and the interaction effect of per capita income. Conclusion showed that there were significant positive relation-ships between per capita income, the life expectancy and savings rate; and significant negative relationship between elderly dependency ratio and the saving rate; And the relationship was influenced by the corresponding interaction between per capita income growth and Elderly dependency ratio .the faster the per capita income growth, the greater the impact of old-age dependency ratio on the negative saving is.