1999～2015年沈阳市建设用地规模扩张影响因素研究

RESEARCH ON INFLUENCING FACTORS OF CONSTRUCTION LAND EXPANSION IN SHENYANG FROM 1999 TO 2015

[目的]通过分析沈阳市社会经济发展特征,将1999~2015年按照经济社会发展速度的不同划分为1999~2003年、2004~2009年和2010~2015年3个时间阶段,并从人口、耕地、产业和宏观经济等4个方面确定10个指标研究其对沈阳市建设用地扩展的影响,深入分析沈阳市建设用地规模扩张驱动力的作用机理及扩张的特点,为沈阳市制定合理的土地调控政策提供科学依据。[方法]运用灰色关联度分析法,选取地区生产总值等10个影响因素,分别计算了沈阳市3个尺度上各社会经济因素与建设用地规模扩张的关联程度,分析各因素对3个时间尺度上沈阳市建设用地扩张的影响,以及各因素影响的作用机理。[结果]1999年以来人口与城市化、耕地、产业、宏观经济等方面因素都对沈阳市建设用地扩张形成了重要影响。其中,人口增长与城市化发展是影响沈阳市建设用地扩张的最主要因素,但2010年以后影响作用明显减弱;产业因素对沈阳市建设用地扩张的影响仅次于人口与城市化,并于2010年以后成为首要影响因素;由于保护力度的不断加强和后备资源的日渐匮乏,建设用地扩张对耕地的占用呈减少趋势;宏观经济对建设用地扩张的影响弱于以上3方面因素。2010年以后,由于城市化进入全面发展阶段、经济发展逐渐进入新常态以及"后全运时代"的影响,产业因素影响作用明显加强,其他因素不同程度有所减弱,且预计这种趋势未来仍将持续一段时间。[结论]为更好地发挥老工业基地振兴中土地要素的保障作用,促进新常态下城市产业转型升级,下一步沈阳市要严格执行土地使用标准,提高土地城镇化质量;合理优化城市发展空间,科学划定"三线";挖掘存量用地潜力,拓展建设用地扩张新空间;此外还要做好建设用地集约研究。

By analyzing the characteristics of social and economic development from 1999 to 2015 in Shenyang city,it found that the speed of economic and social development was obviously different during 1999-2003,2004-2009 and 2010-2015. 10 indicators from four aspects which including the population,arable land,industry and macroeconomic were determined to study impacts on construction land expansion from the three time periods.Through the deep analysis in the mechanism of the driving force and the characteristics of urban construction land expansion in Shenyang,it can provide a scientific basis for the formulation of reasonable land control policy in Shenyang. The results showed that population,urbanization,cultivated area,industry and macroeconomic factors had significant impacts on construction land expansion in Shenyang since 1999. Population and urbanization were the most important factors,followed by the industrial factors. The construction land showed a trend of decrease mainly because of the continuously enhanced protection of arable land. Because of the comprehensive development of urbanization,industry factors showed an increase effect on urban construction land expansion. Therefore,in order to make sure the land protection function under revitalization of the old northeast industrial base and promote urban industry upgrade in the new normal,it should establish land use standard to ensure quality of land urbanization,optimizing urban development space,excavating stock construction land latent capacity,and broadening construction land.