基于蒙特卡洛仿真的平行双跑道容量评估方法

Capacity Evaluation Method for Parallel Runway Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

跑道容量评估是科学评价跑道规划方案、合理安排航班时刻、精准实施流量管理的重要基础性工作。针对平行双跑道容量评估问题,分析了跑道容量影响因素,考虑到跑道分配、机型分配、起降类型分配、进离港点分配、航班流队列顺序等随机性,采用蒙特卡洛方法模拟变量随机性,按照离散事件系统原理,递归计算每个航班的起降时刻,通过统计1 h内的航班数量获得容量值。以西安机场双跑道为例,针对现行的相关进近、独立进近、隔离运行3种模式,分别计算了跑道容量值。仿真计算结果显示,相关进近模式容量60架次/h,独立进近模式跑道容量为78架次/h,隔离运行模式跑道容量为52架次/h,平均每次仿真时间仅为1 min,说明方法效率较高。与2015年高峰61架次/h相比仅相差1个架次,计算结果说明方法是有效的。

Runway capacity evaluation is an important and foundational work for evaluating runway plan-ning scientifically, arranging the flights schedules reasonably, and implementing airport flow management accurately. In order to solve capacity evaluation problem for parallel double runway, several factors affect-ing runway capacity were analyzed in this paper. The Monte Carlo method was used to simulate the ran-domness of those factors, such as runway allocation, aircraft type allocation, take - off or landing type allo- cation,fix points allocation and flow queue sequence. After that,according to the principle of discrete e-vent systems, the departure or arrival time of every flight was computed recursively, and then the runway capacity was calculated. Take Xiran airport with double parallel runway for example,the runway capacity is calculated for three modes, such as related approach used now, independent approach and isolated op-eration. The simulation results show that the capacity is 60,78 and 52 aircrafts for related approach used now, independent approach and isolated operation separately and average simulation time is only about 1 min,which indicates that this method is efficient. Compare with current 61 aircrafts in peak hour in 2015, there is only 1 aircraft differences. The results indicate that the method presented in this paper is ef-fective, and independent approach mode can improve runway capacity.