习惯形成、退休冲击与城镇居民消费结构

Habit Formation,Retirement and Consumption Structure of Urban Households in China

通过将习惯偏好引入传统的AIDS模型,进一步纳入退休冲击变量,构建了拓展的动态LA/AIDS模型。随后按照各省城镇居民可支配收入将全国分为高收入、中等收入和低收入地区,基于2003—2014年中国26个省城镇居民面板数据,利用系统广义矩估计方法,实证分析了习惯形成、退休冲击对中国不同收入等级地区城镇居民消费结构的影响;同时用FE-IV估计法对相应的静态模型进行估计。实证结果表明:(1)各收入地区城镇居民消费支出均显示出了显著的习惯形成特征,惯性最强的是食品消费支出份额,惯性最小的是家庭设备。(2)退休冲击对城镇居民消费结构的影响在中等收入地区和高收入地区显著,而在低收入地区不显著。在控制了习惯形成效应后,退休冲击对消费支出份额的影响程度均变小了。

Through incorporating habit formation into consumption s truc ture , the paper builds adynamic LA/AIDS model, further it extends this model by the introduction of influencing factor ofretirement. Then it divides China into three areas according to provincial disposable income of urbanresidents. By using the idea of System-GMM method this paper empirically analyzes the influence of habitformation and retirement on the consumption structure of urban households in the three areas based on thepanel data of China＇s 26 provinces from 2003 to 2014; then by FE-IV method it estimates thecorresponding static model. The research results show that urban households, consumption in the threeareas of China show significant habit formation, the consumption of food expenditure shows the strongest habit formation and family equipment service shows the weakest formation behavior. In addition, the retirement has a stronger influence on the consumption structure of the middle and high-income households than on low-income households, and the influence degree of retirement on the consumption expenditure share becomes smaller after controlling the habit formation effect.