基于改进层次分析法的社区灾害风险及易损性评价

Community disaster risk and vulnerability assessment based on improved analytic hierarchy process

现有灾害风险评价多以脆弱性分析为主,对易损性分析及其影响因子的研究较少.为了全面分析社区灾害风险及易损性,综合社区人口、经济、环境和公共管理四类易损性评价指标,结合改进层次分析法,通过调整判断矩阵、计算权重、一致性检验建立风险评价模型.算例构建了社区易损性层次结构模型,运用定量标识和归一化原理进行指标因子的易损性程度排序和风险等级的确定.结果表明,易损性等级评价可以对减灾型社区的灾害风险因素实现有效控制,并为制定防灾减灾方案提供合理参考.

Most of the existing disaster risk assessment is mainly based on fragibility analysis,the research on vulnerability analysis and its influence factors are few. In order to comprehensively analyze the risk and vulnerability of community disaster,this paper integrates community population,economy,environment and public management of the four types of vulnerability assessment indicators. Combined with the improved analytic hierarchy process( AHP),the risk assessment model is established by adjusting the judgment matrix,calculating the weight and consistency test. The model of community vulnerability hierarchy is constructed,and the vulnerability degree and the risk grade of the index factors are determined by using the quantitative identification and normalization theory. Results show that,vulnerability assessment can effectively control the disaster risk factors of disaster reduction community,and provide a reasonable reference for the development of disaster prevention and mitigation programs.