农民外出务工对收入影响的反事实分析

An Anti-Fact Analysis on the Effect of Rural Laborers' Going out to Work on Income

采用2010年中国综合社会调查和2009年珠三角城市农民工调查数据,运用反事实分析方法对未外出务工农民和外出务工农民工收入进行分析。研究发现:外出务工行为确实具有收入增加效应,由于样本选择性偏误的存在,传统的OLS回归分析方法低估了这种收入增加效应;另外,外出务工对不同外出务工倾向性者的收入增加效应具有强弱区别,其中,收入增加效应最强的是外出务工倾向性最高者,其次却是外出务工倾向性最低者。此研究结论与现时存在的"民工荒"现象说明劳动力市场分割理论对解释现时中国农村劳动力外出务工决策问题更具有现实意义,中国的农村劳动力城乡流动问题更需要从社会制度视角,综合社会、家庭和个人等方面的因素进行分析。

Using the CGSS2010 Data and the SYSU2009 Data,this article analyzes the income of migrant laborers and non-migrant laborersthrough the anti-fact analysis method. The data analysis leads to the conclusions that migrant laborers who work in the citiescan indeed increase their income,and that due to the presence of sample selectivity bias,the traditional OLS regression analysis method underestimates the effect of migrant laborers' going out to work on their income.The effects are all positive but different from each stratification of propensity score matching,and it is especially worth noting that the strongest effect on income increase is from the migrant laborersin the highest propensity score stratification followed by the ones in the lowest propensity score stratification.This analysis conclusion and the phenomenon of present 'labor shortage'prove that the labor market segmentation theory is more suitable to explain choices made bymigrant laborerson whether to seek employments in the city and that the issue of rural labors mobility between urban and rural areas in China is not exclusively a research subject of economics. More research needs to be conducted from the perspective of sociology.