长江三角洲生态系统服务价值分析及趋势预测

Ecosystem Service Value Analysis and Trend Prediction in Yangtze River Delta

[目的]对长江三角洲生态系统服务价值进行分析及趋势预测,以期为该区未来城市发展以及制定生态环境建设补偿政策提供支持。[结果]以长江三角洲16个地市2000—2014年的土地利用数据和相关统计资料为数据源,采用Costanza生态系统服务价值计算方法,参照修正后的生态系统单位面积生态服务价值系数,结合敏感性分析,探讨生态系统服务价值的时空演化规律,并利用马尔科夫模型对其未来3a的发展趋势进行了预测分析。[结果]区域生态系统总服务价值从2000年的1 303.89亿元减少到2014年的1 294.25亿元,变化率为-0.74%,水源涵养、废物处理和娱乐文化生态系统服务功能价值上升;在空间上,常州、南京、宁波、泰州、台州、扬州的生态系统服务价值不断增加,而其他城市的则处于下降趋势;对长江三角洲2015和2017年的土地利用构成和生态系统服务价值进行预测,呈现耕地、林地持续减少,建设用地持续增加的趋势,生态系统总服务价值将减少276.65亿元。[结论]在未来土地调整中应更多地考虑到生态服务价值的重要意义,格外注意对耕地、水域的保护,控制建设用地占用耕地和林地,继续加大植树造林力度,提高土地利用集约度,维持生态系统的功能。

[Objective] This paper examined the spatio temporal variations in the value of ecosystem services and then predicted it to provide support for formulating compensation policy in ecological environment construction and future urban development. [Methods] Based on land use data and relevant statistical data in the Yangtze River delta from 2000 to 2014, with the method proposed by Costanza wherein the values of ecosystem services are calculated with regard to the value coefficients of ecosystem services per unit area in the Chinese terrestrial ecosystem and the sensitivity analysis, this paper examined the spatio-temporal variations in the value of ecosystem services and then predicted it by Markov model. [Results] The total value of ecosystem services decreased from 130 389 million yuan in 2000 to 129 425 million yuan, reduced by 0. 74%. In addition, the ecosystem service value of water supply, recreation and culture function and waste treatment increased while other ecosystem functions declined. From the perspective of spatial analysis, the ecosystem service values of Changzhou, Nanjing, Ninbo, Taizhou, Taizhou, Yangzhou City increased, while values of other cities decreased. The land use structures of the Yangtze River delta in 2015 and 2017 were predicted using the Markov model. The trends of woodland and cultivated land will maintain a continual increase while the construction land will be in a continual decrease in the coming three years. The total ecosystem services value will have a decrement of 276. 65 million yuan. [Conclusion] Therefore, the importance of ecological service value should be given more consideration in future land adjustment, especially for the protection of cultivated land and water and improvement of land utilization intensity, it is very important to control the occupancies of cultivated and forest land by construction, to continually increase the effort of afforestation and maintain the function of ecosystem.