秦巴山区自我发展能力测算及时空演变实证分析

A Case Analysis on Spatio-temporal Evolution Analysis of Self-development Capacity in Qinba Mountain Areas

[目的]了解并测算秦巴山区自我发展能力,为该区域开展减贫与经济社会发展提供科学依据。[方法]基于生态经济视角,从产业能力、市场能力、空间能力和软实力4个维度,构建秦巴山区自我发展能力测算的指标体系,应用均方差权重法对2006,2010,2014年秦巴山区自我发展能力进行测算,并分析自我发展能力及其各维度的时空演变规律。[结果](1)秦巴山区自我发展能力总体偏低,发展不平衡;(2)秦巴山区自我发展能力整体上属于市场能力制约—空间能力驱动型;(3)2006—2014年秦巴山区自我发展能力都呈增强趋势,各维度时空演变格局存在差异性;(4)秦巴山区自我发展能力的内部结构存在着不合理性。[结论]秦巴山区自我发展能力整体偏弱,区域的能力制约与驱动因素存在差异性,未来可从各子区域的产业结构、市场定位、生态功能及科技创新能力4方面制定针对性更强的发展对策。

[Objective]Investigation and calculation of the regional self-development capacity（RSC） were the keys of alleviating poverty and promoting development persistently in Qinba Mountain areas. [Methods] Based on the ecological economic perspective, taking Qinba Mountain areas as a typical example, a complicated system of RSC with four dimensions, including industry capacity（IC）, market capacity（MC）, space capacity （SC） and soft power（SP） was built up. Then, the RSCs of all the counties in 2006, 2010 and 2014 were estimated and their spatio-temporal evolution were estimated by multi-index comprehensive calculation method. [Results] The RSC of Qinba areas is generally low and unbalanced. As a whole, the RSC of Qinba areas belongs to MC constraint-SC drive. From 2006 to 2014, the RSC in Qinba Mountain areas had the trend of aggrandizement, and ＂rising in central but declining in southeast＂ in spacial evolution. There are differences among the four dimensions of RSC in spatio-temporal evolution. The internal structure of RSC was unreasonable in Qinba Mountain areas. [Conclusion] The entire Qinba Mountain areas is weak in self-development ability. The regional restriction and the driving factors are also different. In the future, targeted measures for development can be made when considering the aspects of regional industrial structure, market position, ecological function and science innovation.