异质性预期、宏观经济波动与货币政策有效性——来自数量型和价格型工具的双重检验

Research on Heterogeneous Expectations,Macroeconomic Fluctuations and the Validity of Monetary Policy——Based on Verification from Quantity and Price Tools

厘清公众不同形式预期对宏观经济波动的影响,对提高货币政策效率具有重要意义。本文通过构建新凯恩斯模型系统考察不同预期行为下经济冲击对宏观经济波动的影响,并据此讨论货币政策有效性。研究结果表明:无论央行偏好何种货币政策工具,异质性预期模型较理性预期更易放大总供给和总需求冲击造成的通胀、产出均衡偏离,并引致较大央行福利损失;价格型调控相比数量型调控能更有效降低宏观经济波动,但数量型调控仍在局部情形占优价格型调控。为此,本文认为央行应强化预期管理,通过提高政策透明度、完善信息披露等以增强公众理性预期程度,并在宏观调控时根据经济周期特征审慎遴选合意货币政策工具,以提高货币调控效率,更好引领新常态经济发展。

Clarifying the impacts of different public expectations on macroeconomic fluctuations is significant for im- proving the efficiency of monetary policy. This paper studies the impacts of economic shock under different anticipation be- haviors on macroeconomic fluctuations and analyzes the efficiency of monetary policy by constnlcting a New Keynesian model. The results are as follows： no matter the central bank adopts which monetary instrument, it is always easier to amplify aggre- gate demand and aggregate supply shocks for heterogeneous expectation, causing the output gap deviation from the steady state and resulting in more welfare losses; Price regulation can reduce macroeconomic fluctuations more effectively than quantity regulation, though the latter is still prevailing over the former in some situation. Therefore, the paper suggests that in- tensifying expectation management by increasing monetary policy transparency, improving information disclosure systenl, and prudently choosing appropriate monetary instruments according to the business cycle are necessary for the central bank to improve the efficiency of monetary policy and improve the economic development in the ＂new normal＂ .