能源禀赋与实际汇率

Energy Endowment and Real Exchange Rate

在全球化进程中,能源问题一直是各国政治、经济关注的焦点。现有研究多关注能源价格与实际汇率的关系,而忽视了国家能源禀赋本身对实际汇率的影响。本文构建了包含能源禀赋要素的两国三部门开放经济模型,阐释了能源禀赋影响实际汇率的作用机制。在实证部分,对1991—2011年68个国家的数据进行面板回归分析,结果显示能源禀赋会对实际汇率产生显著影响。在控制其他变量影响的情况下,一国能源禀赋越充足,则本币实际汇率越高;反之,则越低。此外,本文还验证了实际汇率的巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应假说。据此,当中国能源进口依赖度不断上升时,人民币应适当贬值。

In the process of globalization, the energy issue is always the focus of national political and economic con- cerns. Existing studies pay more attention to the relationship between energy prices and the real exchange rate, while ignor- ing the effect of a country/s energy endowment itself on the real exchange rate. By constructing a two-country and three-sec- tion model with energy endowment in open economies, this paper explains the mechanism of how energy endowments affect the real exchange rate. In the empirical tests, the annual data of 1991-2011 period on 68 countries are used to conduct the panel regression analysis. The results show that energy endowment indeed has a significant impact on the real exchange rate. The more abundant one country＇s energy endowment is, the higher the real exchange rate of its currency is; otherwise, the lower. In addition, we verify the Balassa-Samuelson effect hypothesis. If the energy dependence on import keeps growing in China, RMB should depreciate appropriately.