中国天然气产业的发展过快了吗?

Is China's Natural Gas Industry Growing Too Fast?

近年来,天然气在中国能源结构中所占比重逐年加大,对外依存度增加,但进入"新常态"时期,在国内经济下行压力加大及国际原油价格下跌的影响下,需求放缓,天然气供应出现产能过剩倾向。在此背景下,分析天然气供需现状及未来产能具有重要意义。本文首先使用通径分析模型筛选出天然气供给和需求的核心影响因素;其次,运用ETS模型、RBF神经网络分位数回归(RBF-QRNN)模型和情景分析方法分别对我国天然气生产量、消费量和进口量进行分析和预测。最后,比较分析未来中国天然气市场的供需情况。结果表明,"十二五"末,中国天然气总供给量和总消费量分别将近178532.1百万立方米,152874.7百万立方米;2020年天然气总供给量和消费量分别将近295819.4百万立方米,228691.5百万立方米。总供给量的年均增长率高于总消费量的年均增长率。从2015年开始,中国天然气产业出现产能过剩,供过于求的"荒气"现象。

Natural gas in China＇s energy structure has been rising in recent years and its supply is increasingly dependent on import.However,in the＂New Normal＂period,the slowdown in gas demand caused by domestic economic downturn and falling global oil prices have lead to gas oversupply. Under this background,it is significant to analyze the current situation and future capacity of natural gas supply and demand. At first,this paper uses path analysis to screen the core of factors that influence natural gas consumption and supply,then predicts gas consumption,production and imports in China by the RBF neural network quantile regression（ RBF-QRNN） model,ETS model and scenario analysis method separately,and lastly,discusses and compares the results of consumption and supply. The result shows that the natural gas consumption in China will reach around 178649.23 million cubic meters by the end of＂the Twelfth FiveYear Plan＂and about 264698.86 million cubic meters by 2020. And the natural gas supply will reach around 228691.5 million cubic meters by the end of ＂the Twelfth Five-Year Plan＂and about 295819.4 million cubic meters by 2020. Annual supply will grow faster than consumption. Starting from 2015,natural gas supply has tended to be over-supplied.