新媒体环境下突发事件网络舆情信息传播及实证研究——以新浪微博“南海仲裁案”话题为例

An Empirical Study on Information Dissemination of Network Public Opinion on Emergencies under the New Media Environment

[目的/意义]新媒体环境下突发事件网络舆情信息传播成为当前政府和行业机构面临的新问题。对移动环境下网络舆情信息传播进行研究,有助于深入剖析网络舆情传播规律。[方法/过程]根据新媒体环境下突发事件网络舆情信息传播特征在各个阶段的变化建立舆情传播模型,以新浪微博热点话题"南海仲裁案"为数据源,获取47749条网络舆情信息,使用Java编程方式接入新浪网获取微博数据,通过Matlab软件对移动端和非移动端突发事件网络舆情演化规律、预警规律、演化模型及用户工具端使用规律进行分析。[结果/结论]数据结果表明,移动端的突发事件网络舆情信息传播比非移动端传播速度更快、传播程度更深、传播范围更广。文章的研究对相关舆情监管部门进行新媒体环境下突发事件的网络舆情监管及舆情控制具有一定的指导和帮助作用。

[ Purpose/significance] Under the new media environment, dissemination of network public opinion on emergencies is a new problem faced by governments and industry organizations. Research on the information dissemination of network public opinion in mobile environment is helpful to further analyze the network public opinion dissemination patterns. [ Method/process ] This paper establishes a dissemination model of network public opinion according to the changing characteristics of information in different stages. Using the topic of ＂South China Sea Arbitration＂ in Sina Weibo as the data source, the paper connects Sina API open platform to retrieve 47749 pieces of network public opinion by a Java program. Considering differences of network public opin- ion of emergencies between mobile and non-mobile terminals, the paper conducts an analysis for evolution law, early warning rule, evolution model and using patterns of tools by Matlab. [ Result/conclusion] Results show that the dissemination of mobile terminal is faster, deeper and wider. This study also offers guidance for regulators to supervise and control network public opinion on emergencies under the new media environment.