高比例清洁能源替代潜力评估模型及关键影响因素分析

Substitution Potential Model of High Proportion of Clean Energy and Analysis of Key Affecting Factors

在当前应对环境和能源问题的背景下,清洁替代作为实现电力低碳化的有效途径受到广泛关注。简要分析了清洁替代的关键影响因素及发展趋势,建立了综合考虑技术、经济、环保约束的清洁替代潜力评估模型;构建了涵盖不同技术发展水平和减排目标的典型情景,分析了不同情景下的替代潜力,并重点分析了不同减排约束下经济因素和技术因素对清洁替代潜力的影响。分析结果表明,环保因素是提升清洁替代潜力的驱动因素,技术进步有助于提升系统消纳清洁能源的能力;经济因素与技术因素对清洁替代潜力的影响程度则与系统灵活性水平密切相关,在有限的灵活性水平下,随着减排要求的提高和清洁能源装机规模的提升,技术因素将逐步取代经济因素成为影响清洁替代潜力的首要因素。

In context of current environmental and energy issues, clean energy substitution attracts wide attention as an effective way to achieve low-carbon power system. This paper analyzes key factors and development trends of clean energy substitution, and establishes a potential assessment model considering technical, economic and environmental constraints. Different scenarios covering different technological advances and emission reduction targets are constructed and substitution potentials in corresponding situations are calculated. Influence of economic and technical factors on clean substitution potential under different emission reduction constraints is analyzed emphatically. Results indicate that environmental factors are driving factors for enhancing clean substitution potential and technological advances is beneficial to improve system capacity in integrating clean energy. Impacts of economic and technical factors on clean substitution potentials are closely related to system flexibility level. At limited flexibility, with increase in emission reduction requirement and proportion of clean energy installed, technical factors will gradually replace economic factors to become primary factor of clean energy substitution potential.