国际能源价格波动对我国碳排放影响的效应研究——基于岭回归分析

A Study on the Effect of International Energy Price Fluctuation on China's Carbon Emission

本文从碳排放的视角探讨国际能源价格波动对我国碳排放的影响,通过国际能源价格、国际石油价格和国际煤炭价格3个不同的指标,从格兰杰因果关系和实证两个维度分析其对碳排放的影响。结果发现:(1)国际能源价格、国际石油价格和国际煤炭价格均是人均碳排放量的格兰杰原因,但皆不是碳排放强度的格兰杰原因;(2)3种国际能源价格对人均碳排放量具有直接显著正的影响,国际能源价格和国际石油价格对碳排放强度具有显著负的影响,但国际煤炭价格对碳排放强度影响为正但不显著;(3)国际能源价格、国际石油价格和国际煤炭价格以及人均GDP、能源结构和能源效率对人均碳排放和碳排放强度的调节效应都存在不同程度的扭曲现象。

This paper explores the impact of international energy price volatility on China＇s carbon emissions, through the international energy prices, international oil prices and international coal prices, from Granger causality and empirical analysis of the two dimensions, and its impact on carbon emissions. The results show that： （1） international energy prices, international oil prices and international coal prices are per capita carbon emissions of Granger reasons, but are not the carbon intensity of Granger reasons; （2） the three international energy prices have a direct and positive impact on the per capita carbon emissions. International energy prices and international oil prices have a significant negative impact on carbon intensity, hut international coal prices have not obvious positive effects on carbon intensity; （3） international energy prices, international oil prices and international coal prices per capita GDP, energy structure and energy efficiency on the per capita carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity of the regulatory effect of varying degrees of distortions.