跨境贸易人民币结算的发展及其影响因素分析

An Analysis on the Development of RMB Settlement in Cross-border Trade and Its Influencing Factors

本文在回顾我国跨境贸易人民币结算业务发展历程以及分析其内外部条件的基础上,运用VAR模型对2010年一季度到2016年一季度我国跨境贸易人民币结算相关季度数据进行实证分析,探究影响我国跨境贸易人民币结算的主要因素及作用机理。研究表明:我国对外贸易规模、汇率及离岸市场发展对跨境贸易人民币结算具有正向促进作用,但通货膨胀有显著阻碍作用。为更好推动跨境人民币结算的发展,本文从国家政策支持和市场资源配置两方面提出推进跨境贸易人民币结算政策法规体系的建设、完善人民币支付清算体系、深化金融市场开放与改革及拓宽境外人民币回流渠道等对策建议。

This paper reviews the development of cross-border trade in RMB settlement service in China and analyzes of its internal and external conditions, using the VAR model of China＇s cross-border RMB trade settlement related empirical analysis of quarterly data for the first quarter of 2010 to the first quarter of 2016 and explores the main factors affecting China＇s cross-border RMB trade settlement and the mechanism of action. The study shows that the scale of China＇s foreign trade, exchange rate, and the offshore market development has a positive role in promoting cross-border trade RMB settlement, but there is a significant impediment to inflation. In order to better promote the development of cross-border RMB settlement, this paper proposes constructing RMB settlement policy system of cross-border trade from the aspects of national policy support and market resource allocation, perfecting the RMB payment and settlement system, deepening the opening and reform of financial market, RMB return channels and other countermeasures.